Collapse of the Conservatives

Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election

In May 2021, the Conservatives held an 18 point lead in the polls and won the Hartlepool by-election, taking the seat from Labour on the biggest swing towards a governing party in the post-war era. Boris Johnson was jubilant, while Keir Starmer considered resigning.

Just three years later an angry public, frustrated that nothing worked anymore because of the Conservative Party’s incompetence, took whatever stick was available to beat the government in a punishment election. The party suffered its worst-ever election defeat, losing 251 seats. 

Why and how did public opinion shift so radically against the Conservatives in three short years?

Drawing on hundreds of surveys, polls, and focus groups, Collapse of the Conservatives examines how voters became detached from the Conservative Party as the events of the 2019-2024 parliament unfolded, and how a powerful anti-Conservative narrative took hold with the public. It charts the collapse of trust in politicians and the growth of an angry anti-politics mood which led to more transactional voting, an openness to populist views and greater fragmentation. The electoral landscape is no longer what it was. 

The challenges facing the Conservative Party are significant. How does the party deal with the rise of Reform UK, rebuild its reputation for competence and develop a narrative that appeals beyond its ageing base to younger voters? The party’s position is precarious. If it fails to adapt and address the challenges it faces, the 2024 election could mark an irreversible turning point in its electoral fortunes.